Micah Shippee, PhD

Speaker, Consultant, Instructional Designer, Trainer, & Teacher

mobile tech: predictable

“A page of history is worth a pound of logic.” – Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr.

I spent much of last Spring wanting to update my iPhone 3GS but dreaded the fact that as soon as I purchased it, the next iteration (iPhone 5) would be released and my shiny new iPhone 4 would go the way of my StarTac Flip Phone… a toy/frisbee for my toddler…. I was so proud of that StarTac 15 years ago, man, I was so cool, rolling like Cpt. Kirk.

Why is my mobile phone out of date after a few months? Have you sighed this question to yourself? Don’t get frustrated, rather find comfort in its predictablility.

Gordon Moore, Intel C0-Founder, made some short term predictions in 1965 that have had long term effects. What has become known as “Moore’s Law” is defined as: an axiom of microprocessor development usually holding that processing power doubles about every 18 months especially relative to cost or size. Moore also stated: “The number of transistors incorporated in a chip will approximately double every 24 months.”

But today we can see his predictions apply over 30 years and beyond. Wikipedia user Wgsimon has plotted Microprocessor Transistor Counts up through 2011 proving the present day applicability of Moore’s Law.


So what’s the point? Technology is getting faster, smaller, and better, quicker than we can buy it off the shelf. I bought the iPhone 4 in June (Father’s Day…. thanks kids) and the iPhone 5 will be released in just a few days, a mere 4 months and I’m not cool anymore. There’s no point getting too frustrated, rather embrace the change, “Stay Calm and Carry On.”

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References:

“Moore’s Law” http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/moore%27s+law?show=0&t=1317401836

ftp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Printed_Materials/Moores_Law_2pg.pdf+Moore’s+law+.pdf&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESjoOZJEPynaYwV8aJL2L5oBVDOOQxY7gppxFc-i0N0MKG8lxZ6ayi-xdRapA8_FPVF5cXRL-fTG6suC1yJttmRbPvFC_SWbwgLB6EdUwcsI4dbP-tKAgK5Iz2Q4pC22P0EQGxqz&sig=AHIEtbRT3xsv9wSLX1kM00z7PYkcdb1bhA

By Wgsimon (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)], via Wikimedia Commons

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3 responses to “mobile tech: predictable

  1. Chris October 4, 2011 at 3:16 am

    Now if the rate at which teachers adopted and utilized it kept pace with Moore’s law. Then you would have something.

  2. micah October 4, 2011 at 12:18 pm

    Great point Chris… user Rate of Adoption is next on my list of posts, stay tuned!

  3. micah October 5, 2011 at 3:15 pm

    Phew! It’s only the iPhone 4S…. cool status maintained. Back to playing with my lightsaber app.

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